RINK RAT ROUNDUP

Predictions use verified current-season scores in the same age division. Goals-for/against rates are shrunk toward the division average, then a simple Poisson model estimates scores and away/tie/home probabilities. At least three scored games per side are required. Matchup heat uses an opponent-adjusted, regularized GTHL goal-margin model (blowout margins capped at five), blended with valid same-season MYHockey rating gaps when available. At least three games per team are required. Heuristic projected strength gaps ≤0.75 / 1.5 / 2.5 / 4 / above 4 correspond to five / four / three / two / one fires. These thresholds are not calibrated probabilities; nearby picks are separate. MYHockey comparisons require valid current-season ratings for both exact teams; zero or missing ratings are not usable. Estimates are uncalibrated and for entertainment—not sportsbook odds. A close-game forecast is not a guarantee.